Monetary Policies for an MDG-Related Scaling up of ODA to Combat HIV/AIDS:Avoiding Dutch Disease Versus Supporting Fiscal Expansion

This Conference Paper by Matias Vernengo was presented at the ?Global Conference on Gearing Macroeconomic Policies to Reverse the HIV/AIDS Epidemic?, jointly organized by UNDP?s HIV/AIDS Group and IPC and held in Brasilia, November 2006. It is part of an IPC-supported Research Programme on ?Macroeconomic Policies to Combat HIV/AIDS?. The paper maintains that the monetary policies best suited to manage the macroeconomic effects of an MDG-related scaling up of HIV/AIDS financing are those that support the needed expansion of public spending - namely, monetary policies that maintain low rates of interest, increase overall liquidity in the economy and try to achieve a relatively depreciated currency.Poverty, MDG, HIV/AIDS, Monetary Policies

Despite assertions to the contrary, the New Deal’s fiscal policies were key to ending the Great Depression

In the years following the financial crisis of 2008, many policymakers have turned to the recovery that led the West out of the Great Depression in the 1930s for inspiration of how to address current problems. While many have re-interpreted the policy actions of that period to emphasize the role of monetary over fiscal policy in the recovery, Matías Vernengo urges caution. He argues that while much analysis asserts that expansionary monetary policy led to increased private consumption and investment, low rates from the Fed also made increased public spending more sustainable, thus leading to positive effects on GDP and employment

"Hegemonic Currencies during the Crisis: The Dollar versus the Euro in a Cartalist Perspective"

This paper suggests that the dollar is not threatened as the hegemonic international currency, and that most analysts are incapable of understanding the resilience of the dollar, not only because they ignore the theories of monetary hegemonic stability or what, more recently, has been termed the geography of money; but also as a result of an incomplete understanding of what a monetary hegemon does. The hegemon is not required to maintain credible macroeconomic policies (i.e., fiscally contractionary policies to maintain the value of the currency), but rather to provide an asset free of the risk of default. It is argued that the current crisis in Europe illustrates why the euro is not a real contender for hegemony in the near future.Dollar; Euro; International Currency

Financialization, Deindustrialization and Instability in Latin America

The paper analyzes the relation between premature deindustrialization in Latin America with what is termed premature financialization. Premature financialization is defined as a turn to finance, organized as an industrial concern, which is a vehicle for accumulation before the process of industrialization has reached maturity. This contrasts with developed countries where financialization occurs after an advanced stage of economic and social development is reached, and where the growth of the financial sector, beyond a certain threshold, can be detrimental to economic activity. The paper examines the consequences of premature financialization for investment, growth, and financial stability

Tres ensayos sobre las causas y las consecuencias de la dolarización en Argentina

En el presente trabajo, se presenta un primer planteamiento del proyecto de tesis de doctorado a realizarse en la Universidad Nacional de San Martín. El mismo consta de la realización de tres artículos académicos cuya temática central va a ser la dolarización y su vínculo con la estanflación en Argentina. En el primer artículo se analizarán el orden de causalidad de las variables bajo estudio en base al caso argentino. Este producto será utilizado para realizar un modelo post-keynesiano y, finalmente, en base a los artículos previos, se realizará un estudio comparativo entre distintos países de la región.Fil: Graña Colella, Santiago. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.Fil: Vernengo, Matías. Bucknell University; Estados Unidos.Fil: Medici, Florencia. Observatorio Metropolitano de Economía y Trabajo. UNM-CONICET; Argentina

Retrato de un joven economista: la evolución de las opiniones de Raúl Prebisch sobre el ciclo económico y el dinero, 1919-1949

Incluye BibliografíaSe analizan los aportes menos conocidos de Raúl Prebisch a la teoría económica, relacionados con el ciclo económico y claramente influenciados por la experiencia argentina. Su pensamiento se funda en la naturaleza común del centro y la periferia del ciclo como un fenómeno unificado y -lejos de rechazar por completo la teoría ortodoxa- desarrolla algunos elementos de lo que se convertiría en una posición más keynesiana. Mucho antes de que los planes de Keynes y White se plasmaran en el acuerdo de Bretton Woods, Prebisch se preocupó especialmente del manejo de la balanza de pagos y la necesidad de contar con controles de capital como una herramienta de gestión macroeconómica. Así, desarrolló varias ideas que aún resultan útiles para entender las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la periferia y se mostró más interesado en la capacidad de aprovechar los ciclos de auge para mantener un crecimiento económico sostenido

From restrained golden age to creeping platinum age: A periodization of Latin American development in the Robinsonian tradition*

RESUMO: Este artigo analisa o modelo de crescimento de Joan Robinson, aqui adaptado a fim de fornecer uma taxonomia exploratória de Eras de Crescimento. Essas Eras ou Anos de Crescimento foram para Robinson uma maneira de fornecer conexões lógicas entre o crescimento da produção, a acumulação de capital, o grau de frugalidade, o salário real e ilustrar um catálogo de possibilidades de crescimento. Esta taxonomia modificada segue o espírito da obra de Robinson, mas é preciso diferentes abordagens teóricas, o que implica que algumas não se encaixam perfeitamente às aqui sugeridas. A América Latina passou de uma Idade de Ouro na década de 1950 e 1960, a uma Idade de Chumbo na década de 1980, com dois períodos de travessia, um em que o processo de crescimento e industrialização se acelerou na década de 1960 e início de 1970, que aqui se refere a uma Era Platinum Galopante, e aquela em que um processo de desindustrialização e reprimarização e maquilação da estrutura produtiva teve lugar, começando na década de 1990, que poderia ser referido como uma Era Platinum Rastejante. PALAVRAS-ChAVE: desenvolvimento econômico; América Latina; modelos de crescimento heterodoxos. ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes Joan Robinson's growth model, and then adapted in order to provide an exploratory taxonomy of Growth Eras. The Growth Eras or Ages were for Robinson a way to provide logical connections among output growth, capital accumulation, the degree of thriftiness, the real wage and illustrate a catalogue of growth possibilities. This modified taxonomy follows the spirit of Robinson's work, but it takes different theoretica